SEMI Announces Mid-Year Consensus Forecast for Chip Equipment Industry


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SEMI ANNOUNCES MID-YEAR CONSENSUS FORECAST FOR CHIP EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY

Semiconductor Equipment Companies Expect Sales of $32.63 Billion in 2005

SAN FRANCISCO, Calif., July 11, 2005 -- The leading manufacturers of semiconductor equipment expect 2005 to be the third largest year ever for sales of new semiconductor equipment according to the mid-year edition of the SEMI Capital Equipment Consensus Forecast, released here today by SEMI at the annual SEMICON West exposition.

The forecast indicates that, following the robust 67.2 percent market expansion in 2004, the equipment market will decline 12.1 percent to $32.6 billion in 2005. Survey respondents see the market growing at a single-digit rate in 2006 and resuming double-digit growth over the following two years to reach $44.3 billion in 2008.

"A large amount of new manufacturing capacity is coming on-line following a year of very strong capital investment," said SEMI President and CEO Stanley Myers. "SEMI members have anticipated that customer spending in 2005 would be more cautious as the new capacity is absorbed. The outlook is for cyclic growth to resume at moderate but stable levels in the following years."

The SEMI Mid-Year Consensus Forecast indicates that the final manufacturing equipment segments will experience the sharpest declines this year. Survey respondents anticipate that the market for assembly and packaging equipment will contract 26 percent to $1.81 billion in 2005. The market for equipment to test semiconductors is expected to decline about 24 percent to $4.85 billion this year. Wafer processing equipment, the largest product segment by dollar value, is expected to decline 9 percent in 2005 to $23.05 billion.

South Korea stands out as the only expanding regional equipment market in 2005, with growth exceeding 21 percent. Sales of new equipment in China and the Rest-of-World market regions will decline 40 percent and 35 percent respectively.

The SEMI Mid-Year Consensus Forecast is based on interviews conducted between late May and June 2005 with companies representing a majority of the total sales volume for the global semiconductor equipment industry.

The following survey results are given in terms of market size in billions of U.S. dollars and percentage growth over the prior year:

Forecast by Equipment Segment

 

2004
Actual


2005


% Chng


2006


% Chng


2007


% Chng


2008


% Chng

Equipment Type

$B

$B

 

$B

 

$B

 

$B

 

Wafer Processing

$25.45

$23.05

-9.4%

$24.13

4.7%

$26.86

11.3%

$30.78

14.6%

Assembly &
Packaging

2.46

1.81

-26.4%

2.06

13.8%

2.25

9.2%

2.50

11.1%

Test

6.37

4.85

-23.9%

6.02

24.1%

6.33

5.1%

7.14

12.8%

Other

2.84

2.92

2.8%

3.08

5.5%

3.41

10.7%

3.90

14.4%

Total Equipment*

$37.11

$32.63

-12.1%

$35.28

8.1%

$38.86

10.1%

$44.31

14.0%

Forecast by Region

 

2004
Actual


2005


% Chng


2006


% Chng


2007


% Chng


2008


% Chng

Market Region

$B

$B

 

$B

 

$B

 

$B

 

North America

$5.81

$5.22

-10.2%

$5.62

7.7%

$5.96

6.0%

$6.62

11.2%

Japan

8.27

7.79

-5.8%

8.17

4.9%

9.01

10.3%

10.41

15.5%

Taiwan

7.76

6.15

-20.7%

6.89

12.0%

7.90

14.7%

9.08

15.0%

Europe

3.44

3.31

-3.8%

3.35

1.1%

3.52

5.0%

3.77

7.3%

South Korea

4.61

5.61

21.6%

5.99

6.8%

6.57

9.8%

7.65

16.4%

China

2.73

1.63

-40.0%

2.13

30.7%

2.45

15.0%

2.54

3.7%

Rest of World

4.49

2.92

-34.8%

3.13

7.1%

3.45

10.3%

4.24

22.8%

Total Equipment*

$37.11

$32.63

-12.1%

$35.28

8.1%

$38.86

10.1%

$44.31

14.0%

*Totals and percentages may differ due to rounding of numbers

SEMI is a global industry association serving companies that develop and provide manufacturing technology, materials and services to make semiconductors, flat panel displays (FPDs), micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS) and related microelectronics. SEMI maintains offices in Austin, Beijing, Brussels, Hsinchu, Moscow, San Jose (Calif.), Seoul, Singapore, Tokyo, Shanghai and Washington, D.C. For more information, visit SEMI at www.semi.org.

ASSOCIATION CONTACTS:

Jonathan Davis/SEMI
Tel: 1.408.943.6937
E-mail: jdavis@semi.org