ISS 2014 Abstract: Mahesh Sanganeria, RBC Capital Markets
Lithography driven scaling started to slow down beyond 65nm due to unavailability of EUV but has caught up with trend line as industry is now comfortable with double patterning. It is unlikely that EUV will be available for 10nm manufacturing but industry will likely transition to quad patterning and settle for higher cost. Beyond 10nm, significant innovation in materials and structures will be needed to meet the performance improvement required albeit at significantly higher costs. Growth of semiconductor units have been driven for many decades by declining cost consistent with Moore’s Law. Industry wide intellectual power will continue to advance on performance improvement needed for requirements of pervasive computing. We believe that semiconductor industry can continue to profitably grow even in a declining cost reduction environment.
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