Sungho Yoon

After logging record shipments in the first quarter of 2021, the silicon wafer industry may need to start greenfield projects as soon as this year to boost capacity over the next two years as market demand and average selling prices continue to improve.

In the past 3 months, silicon wafer shipments leveled off and the YoY growth rate had started to rebound, SEMI reported in Silicon Wafer Market Monitor, a new quarterly report that tracks wafer shipment dynamics including historical shipments, supply & demand shifts, and pricing trends & forecasts.

The silicon wafer market got off to a rough start in 2019 with major silicon wafer manufacturers’ sales weakening in the first quarter of the year following a sharper memory market downturn than expected. Earnings forecasts for the rest of the year have been revised down.

Despite recent global economic uncertainties and a downbeat memory market outlook for the second half of 2019, new 300mm fab construction in Korea is still going strong.

When will the memory market likely show signs of bottoming out? Following is an analysis of the current memory climate using the Memory Inventory Cycle Index introduced in this SEMI two-part article series in October 2018.

Part 1 of this article discussed the Memory Inventory Cycle Index and compared it with memory device sales and memory fab equipment investments. This article, the second of the two-part series, illustrates how the Memory Inventory Cycle Index starts to weaken before memory sales of the top three...