Walt Custer

Global business conditions continued to improve through October although the rate of improvement slowed a bit as pandemic concerns increased (Chart 1).Electronic Equipment Shipments RecoveringThird-quarter world electronic equipment shipment growth showed a big improvement over the second quarter...

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) just raised its regional GDP growth forecasts. For the world it predicts a 4.4% global GDP decline this year followed by a 5.2% expansion next year. This economic turnaround hinges on being guided by good science, political leadership and popular acceptance.

Although the semiconductor chip and capital equipment markets performed well in the first half of 2020, many of the electronic equipment end markets struggled globally. World electronic equipment sales declined almost 10% in 2Q’20 vs. 2Q’19.

So far the semiconductor industry is outperforming most other manufacturing sectors. Semiconductor capital equipment shipments were up 23% globally in 2Q’20 vs. 2Q’19 and semiconductor chip 3/12 growth is still in positive territory. However there are signs of slowing.

2020 still looks to be a very difficult year. How we manage the pandemic, the global economy and international relations remain major challenges but there are glimmers of light near-term and a likely much brighter future in 2021 and 2022.

Included in this outlook is a discussion of the financial impact of the current pandemic and a forecast for GDP growth by major region for 2020 and 2021.

All countries and regions have seen a sharp manufacturing slowdown. China, hit hard in February, recovered in March and then dipped in slightly but the balance of the world saw manufacturing plunge in April as COVID-19 forced factory closures. Unemployment skyrocketed and GDPs plunged.

Plunging stock prices and Coronavirus-driven business shutdowns presently dominate the news. Current economic data, including the recently released February Global Purchasing Manager Index, support earlier negative predictions of an imminent industry decline.

Data through December showed a steady recovery in the global electronic supply chain with SEMI equipment leading the way, but in late January COVID-19 began to make its negative impact felt, snarling supply chains and shutting down factories near Wuhan, China.

We are now in the recovery phase of the current business cycle with SEMI equipment already in a growth mode. However significant economic and geopolitical concerns persist.