Purchasing Managers Index

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) just raised its regional GDP growth forecasts. For the world it predicts a 4.4% global GDP decline this year followed by a 5.2% expansion next year. This economic turnaround hinges on being guided by good science, political leadership and popular acceptance.

Although the semiconductor chip and capital equipment markets performed well in the first half of 2020, many of the electronic equipment end markets struggled globally. World electronic equipment sales declined almost 10% in 2Q’20 vs. 2Q’19.

Included in this outlook is a discussion of the financial impact of the current pandemic and a forecast for GDP growth by major region for 2020 and 2021.

All countries and regions have seen a sharp manufacturing slowdown. China, hit hard in February, recovered in March and then dipped in slightly but the balance of the world saw manufacturing plunge in April as COVID-19 forced factory closures. Unemployment skyrocketed and GDPs plunged.

With all major global electronic equipment OEMs having now reported their third quarter financials, we estimate that combined equipment sales increased 0.4 percent in 3Q’19 versus 3Q’18 and 2 percent sequentially from the second versus the third quarter of this year.

The turnaround is not “around the corner” but at least we can follow its progress!

The semiconductor industry felt more of a fourth-quarter slowdown than the end markets.  Semiconductor-related products are typically much more volatile than the electronic equipment markets they serve.

Part 1 of this article discussed the Memory Inventory Cycle Index and compared it with memory device sales and memory fab equipment investments. This article, the second of the two-part series, illustrates how the Memory Inventory Cycle Index starts to weaken before memory sales of the top three...

Micron, one of the top three memory semiconductor companies, reported solid results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018 (June to August) to extend a multi-quarter string of strong growth. However, the company’s mediocre guidance for the current quarter has raised concerns that memory demand will...